The significance of the Eastleigh by-election

What makes the Eastleigh by-election so different?

Firstly it is necessary to explain what a by-election is and its significance to parliament, before looking into the particular case of Eastleigh. A by-election occurs when a seat becomes vacant in the Houses of Parliament, caused either by death or a resignation. By-elections have little impact upon the balance of parliament, unless there is a small majority, meaning that the campaign is often subdued and the result is barely mentioned in the national media. There have been 15 by-elections since the 2010 General Election for the 647 seats in parliament. Due to the fact that usually only one seat has a by-election at any one time, the issues are often more localised compared to a national campaign which is used for a general election. The local nature of by-elections often causes more candidates to stand on local issues. In Eastleigh’s case there were 14 candidates. The cost incurred to stand for a by-election is a fraction of the cost of a general election. Any party who wishes to make a serious inroad into parliament must contest enough seats to win a majority in parliament (nationalist parties are slightly different), meaning that the cost of putting forward enough candidates is beyond most political parties. For a by-election, the deposit to stand is still £500 and still forfeited if five per cent of the vote is not reached but there is only one seat.

The way in which the electorate tends to vote in a by-election often depends on the popularity of the government at the time. Due to the fact the by-election does not overly affect parliament there is a greater degree of voting for a party that has an issue at its core close to a voters heart instead of voting tactically for one of the large parties in a general election. This type of voting increases the support for minor parties, as local issues often draw the electorate to vote for them. Despite there often being a swing of votes away from the major political parties in a by-election, this trend is often reversed when the next general election occurs.

In the 2010 general election Chris Huhne was returned by Eastleigh to parliament for the second consecutive general election. Despite contesting against six other candidates, Huhne secured 46.5 per cent of the vote. This was unsurprising as Eastleigh had been a Liberal Democrat seat since the 1994 by-election, where it was won from the Conservatives, in an election which saw a surge in support for the Liberal Democrats. This puts Eastleigh into the safe seat category meaning that it would be unlikely for the seat to be lost in a by-election. It was Huhne’s resignation over a speeding ticket which bought about the by-election. The resignation of Huhne dominated the media more than the by-election itself; however, it may have helped to pull the voters to the poll. Turnout for general election in Eastleigh has never fallen below 63.8 per cent and is consistently above the UK average. By-elections always suffer from a lower turnout that general elections and for the Eastleigh by-election it was 52.8 per cent, there have only been six by-elections since 1997 which have had a higher turnout, including the Mid Ulster by-election, which happened yesterday (07/03/2013). Turnout is often seen as a gauge of the importance of any election. Clearly in Eastleigh’s case the election was deemed as being important by the constituents. It is impossible to document why people actually turn out to an election, or indeed stay at home, because the reasons are too varied, but overall the more important an election is seen, the more people go out to vote.

The results of the Eastleigh by-election were highly documented due to the Conservatives being pushed into third place by UKIP, who had secured only 3.6 per cent of the vote in the 2010 general election. However, the fact that this happened drastically overshadowed the fact that the Liberal Democrats retained the seat, despite the unpopularity of the current British government. The surge in support for UKIP was primarily caused by the general lack of Labour support in the constituency and a need to vote for a party that was not in the government, which pushed the constituency to the right-wing UKIP. This was also aided by the fact that the Labour candidate was the satirical writer John O’Farrell, who received a negative reception over his past comments regarding the Thatcher government.

It is possible that at the next general election the Liberal Democrats will retain the seat once more, due to the unpopularity of the government at the current time and their ability to hold off the masses of political competition during the by-election. This all depends on whether the mid-term slump in support for the coalition has reversed or intensified. What is clear is that UKIP will be a party to watch in a future election in Eastleigh. There will no doubt be a great contest in Eastleigh in the next election, as UKIP will be buoyed by their success and target a great deal of their energy to win the constituency. Even though the news regarding this by-election has dried up, Huhne’s speeding offence still dominates the headlines.