On the 18th September 2014 the Scottish people have an important date with the polls, they are going to decide whether Scotland should be and independent country. The referendum will change not only the future for Scotland but will also change the political landscape in the rest of the UK and Europe. This brings forth the question of whether it should be just those who live in Scotland who should in effect decide on the fate of the UK as a whole. Another problem with the referendum is that until the results are counted and negotiations take place the nature of an independent Scotland is unknown. I will also hypothesise over what I believe will happen as a result of Scotland voting "no", as this is much less documented than what independence will lead to. I am not going to use this blog post to influence voters either way as that is not the nature of my blog and any statements that may be perceived as such are caused by my view of the logistics of the referendum rather than a political bias.
With little over a month to go until the referendum there is a flurry of campaigning across Scotland to win voters to join either the "yes" or "no thanks" campaign. The opinion polls are currently showing roughly a 10 point lead for the "no thanks" campaign over the "yes" campaign when the "don't know" responses are taken into account. This can be seen as a definitive victory for the "no thanks" campaign, but if in the next month the "no" campaign gain a significant boost to their popularity the bandwagon effect may push the polls closer. From my own research into Scottish voting behaviour, focusing specifically on SNP support in the first three devolved elections, I found that those who voted for the SNP were not necessarily doing so as they wanted independence, meaning that even though the SNP now have a majority government in Holyrood, that will not necessarily equate to independence.
There has been a lot of talk in areas outside of Scotland as to why do only Scotland get to chose the fate of the continuation of the Union. This was not a question that gained much prominence during the devolved referendum in September 1997 outside of Scotland, as the whole affair was low key. There is no simple answer to this question. The Telegraph claimed in March 2013 that allowing the English to vote on independence would lead to them voting for independence, in effect pushing Scotland out of the Union regardless of whether the Scottish people wished for that. The logistics of this issue is also exacerbated as the population of Scotland is smaller than England. There is no way of hypothetically fixing the issue as to combat the population differences it would have been difficult to instigate a poll which would have given the Scottish an equal voice to that of the rest of the UK.
The main obstacle for the "yes" campaign for the referendum is there is no way of knowing what an independent Scotland would look like, despite them publishing a 670 page document on Scottish independence in November 2013. This cannot be rectified, and will no doubt be causing many Scottish voters to be sceptical when deciding which way to vote, which can be seen in the aforementioned opinion poll where there were large fluctuations in the opinion polls which resulted in a surge for the "no thanks" campaign.
My view on what will happen if Scotland vote "no" next month is the SNP will ask for more devolved powers. With devolution being a half way step towards autonomy, one step back from full independence would be to gain more powers in areas that they cannot legislate on currently, those being the constitution, defence, economy, trade and industry, transport across the UK, social security, medical ethics, broadcasting, foreign affairs, national security, immigration, energy, employment and equal opportunities. Clearly the extent of the list does give scope for a great deal more autonomy if independence was not obtained next month.
So if you are voting in the Scottish referendum but haven't got time to fully read the manifestos for both campaigns (although I highly recommend it), this document by the Electoral Commission is a helpful summary of both sides of the debate. There are clearly a lot of grey areas regarding the referendum, so it is paramount that everyone who votes does so with an educated motive, as the consequences of the referendum regardless of outcome will be far reaching in the future for Scotland.
Comments
Post a Comment